Goodwill hunting in the outfield market
Jarred Kelenic is a potential long-term starter, but the Braves could use a fourth outfielder with a very particular set of skills.
For the first time in a long time, the Braves have a starting left fielder you could look at and say, “That guy might still be the starting left fielder in four years.” Ronald Acuña Jr. manned left field in his 2018, but after that, the Braves opted to rotate through short-term options. Adam Duvall, Marcell Ozuna, Robbie Grossman, Eddie Rosario - each got a short stint and gave way to the next. As I’ve written previously, the Jarred Kelenic acquisition had a cool structure, and I’m very much on board with the concept and with taking a swing on a pedigreed player with a cathedral ceiling.
But Kelenic’s promise comes with massive uncertainty. The Mariners might be cheap, but they aren’t stupid, and there’s a reason Kelenic got attached to a salary dump and Julio Rodriguez got a nine-figure extension. Will he reign in his platoon splits? Can he stay healthy and available for a full campaign? And even if these weren’t concerns, given that the only outfield depth is Forrest Wall, I’m confident the Braves will add a fourth outfielder.
So what’s the recipe for a Braves fourth outfielder candidate?
Hits lefties well. For Kelenic’s career, he has a .330 xwOBA against RHP (think 2023 Eugenio Suárez or 2023 Cody Bellinger) and a .277 xwOBA against LHP (think 2023 Myles Straw or 2023 Javier Báez). The splits were much less pronounced in 2023 - .336 against RHP and .325 against LHP. Maybe this is the product of a skill improvement; maybe it’s just a favorable 85 PA sample against lefties. The Braves have every reason to let Kelenic play every day, and they’ve got enough firepower across the rest of the lineup to withstand growing pains, but if you’ve got to pick days for Kelenic to rest or realize you need to pinch for him against LHP in big spots, having a LHP-masher on the bench is valuable. This is especially true since other primary PH option in the rare situations where pinch hitting is appropriate will be whichever catcher isn’t starting. And both are righties.
Can at least fake it in center field. If something happens to Michael Harris II and he has to miss some time, I’d really rather not see Forrest Wall playing every day in center. This is the second time I've kinda dissed Wall in three paragraphs, so I should say that I do like Wall and think he’s a fun fifth outfielder as an emergency sub/pinch runner. But my ideal fourth outfielder will be able to hit and play a bit of CF.
Has modest salary and playing time expectations. The Braves are bumping up against the third tax threshold - the one with draft pick implications - so I think the $3M they allocated to Kevin Pillar last year is a good idea of what their ceiling might be. And no player who thinks he’s got a real shot at a starting job somewhere will want to sit five to seven days a week in Atlanta. So while I’d like Adam Duvall1, Michael A. Taylor, Tommy Pham, Harrison Bader, etc. to be Braves, they just don’t fit the Braves’ job opening.
So with that said, here are some options who will probably be available in free agency or via trade. (You can probably tell which ones I like based on how much I’ve written about them.)
The Market
Randal Grichuk, free agent (age 32)
Randal Grichuk hasn’t been worth even 1.0 fWAR in a season since 2018. He struggled defensively in 2023, accumulating -7 OAA. When the Angels mass waived a bunch of their players late in the season to save some money, Grichuk went unclaimed.
So what do I like about Randal Grichuk other than that he’s probably extremely cheap and can play all three outfield spots at a professional level? This.
This is a list of outfielders ranked by their 2023 xwOBA against LHPs, min. 100 PAs. Randal Grichuk peers down from his lofty perch at Kyle Tucker and Adolis García and Juan Soto and Luis Robert. Every night, they watch Randal Grichuk’s highlights. They stare at his Statcast page. They don’t just want to be like him; they want to become him (against lefties, in 2023).
Is Grichuk routinely this good against lefties? Absolutely not. His xwOBA against LHP over the last 3 seasons (384 AB) is a much more human .346. This year, he was the equivalent of Bryce Harper against every LHP he faced; usually, he’s more like Francisco Lindor.
But Francisco Lindor is a good hitter! Even if Grichuk is ‘only’ the hitter he’s been against LHP over a longer period of time, he’s a valuable bench bat and spot starter. That’s basically the most you can ask for within the Braves’ budget.
Rob Refsnyder, Boston Red Sox (age 33)
You see how the list above cuts off at 15 players? Guess who’s Number 16?
Rob Refsnyder is a deep cut; 2023 was his eighth year in the majors and he played a career high . . . 89 games. No fanbase is spreading false rumors about Rob Refsnyder boarding a private jet or dining at a local sushi restaurant.
Their loss, because he’s actually kind of great! He’s posted at least a .336 xwOBA in each of the last three seasons, and over that time, he’s posted a .358 xwOBA against LHP; unlike Grichuk, he’s not a one-year standout. The history of his offensive inputs is weird. In 2023, he hit the ball pretty weakly but walked a ton. In 2022, he hit the ball quite hard and walked an average amount. 2021 was in between. The two things he’s consistently elite at are hitting the ball at sweet-spot launch angles and not chasing pitches. I won’t even pretend to know what Braves coaches would do with his offensive approach, but even if you leave him as-is, that’s a valuable hitter.
And Refsnyder is actually used to being a utility player! This year, he played 54 games in left field, 15 in center, and 6 in right. He wasn’t particularly good in any of those spots, but he was perfectly adequate.
So what will it take to pry Refsnyder away from Boston? On one hand, he’s desirable for all of the above reasons and very cheap ($1.9M in 2024, $2M team option in 2025). On the other hand, the Red Sox have a full-on youth movement in their outfield with Jarren Duran, Ceddane Rafaela, and Wilyer Abreu all expected to get significant major league run this year. In fact, the Red Sox are acting like they have a logjam in the outfield. If they make good on their interest in Teoscar Hernandez, they’ll further marginalize Refsnyder’s playing time.
At the beginning of this offseason, I would’ve told you it was very unlikely the Braves would acquire a fourth outfielder by trade. But since that seems to be their favored path for big (Kelenic, Sale) and small (Kerr) moves thus far, this might be the best option available in that market.
Kyle Garlick, free agent (age 33)
Garlick was a Brave back in 2021 spring training. He’s strictly a corner outfielder and hasn’t gotten much playing time in the last three years, but in 125 PAs against LHP, he has a .356 xwOBA. Not much more to say here; he should be cheap - like, minors deal cheap - and he’d be worth bringing in as competition.
Robbie Grossman, free agent (age 34)
Grossman already knows 80 percent of the clubhouse and his xwOBA against LHP over the last 3 years sits right at the Grichuk Line (.346). He does most of his damage via his virtuostic 14.1% walk rate. That’s a man who knows his strike zone. The drawbacks here are that he’s a corner outfielder only and that, having played at least 109 games in each of the last 3 seasons, he’ll probably search for an opening where he’ll get more playing time.
Kevin Pillar, free agent (age 35)
Kevin Pillar sort of implied that he’s not coming back next year, but if you’re not the type to read into end-of-season tweets, we can consider this one for minute. Pillar checks the ‘clubhouse fit’ box, he can play all three defensive spots, he’s got experience coming off the bench, and most importantly, he’s got that dawg in him.
Pillar has demonstrated admirable maturity in accepting a part-time role as his career has wound down. But given that the Braves are likely let Jarred Kelenic try to earn an everyday role, he might be less interested in sticking around in 2024 than he was in the more achievable goal of trying to wrest away playing time from Eddie Rosario.
The Takeaway
Going into the regular season without a capable fourth outfielder is like going on an international trip and forgetting your toiletries. It sucks for a little bit and you’ll probably have to pay a slight premium to get them at some hotel concierge desk or airport convenience store. But they’re readily available, they’re fungible, and they’re not really that expensive anyway.
That is to say, it’s probably not a big deal if the Braves make a bad choice for their fourth outfielder spot. Ideally, you need that player no more than the Braves needed Kevin Pillar in 2023, and if you do? There will always be plenty of Robbie Grossmans available at the deadline.
But it’s nice to just get it right in the first place.
Of this group, I’m the least sure about Duvall. My instinct is that between his comment to Boston press last summer that he found it easier to manage his diabetes in a cooler climate and his impressive baseball card stats while healthy last year, he’ll want and get the lion’s share of playing time somewhere with a commensurate salary. On the other hand, it’s possible that Duvall really wants to play in Atlanta again, and his batted-ball numbers were worrisome enough that maybe no competitive team is seriously interested in making him their starting left fielder.