Tiering the Braves farm system

With the minor league season at the halfway mark, let's check on the farm.

You haven’t read much from me on the major league Braves this year, and that’s because they just haven’t been very interesting. They’ve messed with a winning offensive approach, the injury bug that hit the position players last year has hit the rotation this year (four of the team’s top six starters are on the IL), and they’ve also had poor luck in one-run games. The result is a team that, for the first time since at least 2021, has a legitimate case to sell off small pieces at the deadline.

The minor league Braves, on the other hand, are plenty interesting. I recently wrote a paean to following the farm and early in the year, I surveyed the landscape of Atlanta’s minor league affiliates. I’m back to catch you up on what’s happened since.

The last time I wrote a minors recap, I divided it by affiliate. But the downsides of covering the team by affiliate are (1) that players move between the affiliates all the time, meaning there’s little continuity between the articles; and (2) that you probably don’t care which affiliates are strong or weak. Instead, I’ve worked to group the players in the systems into tiers, with a little color on each. We end up with 31 players, not neatly ranked (even real prospect experts will tell you there’s often little differentiating #7 and #13 on their list) but broken out by the level at which I covet them. I welcome any feedback on this approach!

A note before we begin: I’m not a scout, or really even a wannabe scout. These tiers are composed based on watching some of the affiliates on MLB.tv, publicly available analysis on these players (special thanks to Garrett Spain and Gaurav Vedak of Battery Power/Peach State Prospects), and performance data.

Pitchers

The Braves have an arm-heavy system and these guys are the best of them.

This week, I’ve written about SP Didier Fuentes. The TL;DR is that while Fuentes struggled mightily in Atlanta, he’s got a special arsenal (4 above-average pitches by Stuff+) and he’s the youngest pitcher in baseball above Double-A. FanGraphs is in on Fuentes as a Top 100 prospect, and he’s my favorite prospect in the Braves system.

SP JR Ritchie missed most of 2023 with Tommy John and shook off some of the rust last season. He’s been excellent this year and showed off his arsenal in a one-inning stint at the All-Star Futures Game. He makes his Triple-A debut this weekend, which means we’ll finally have good data on how effectively he holds his velocity deeper into starts.

SP Cam Caminiti had a late start to the season with elbow problems (yikes!) but has eviscerated older competition at Low-A, striking out a third of hitters. I wonder if he’ll get a taste of High-A ball before the season is over.

Speaking of guys who could get a taste of High-A, SP Rayven Antonio is probably my boldest inclusion here. Antonio was a non-entity going into the season. But so far, he’s been Didier Fuentes on a one-year delay: a young Colombian prospect who had an unremarkable affiliated debut at the end of one season and a breakout at that level the next year. He holds the system’s lead for whiffs in a game this season.

These guys all have asterisks that keep them out of the first tier but have a strong chance of playing a role at the major league level in the next few years.

SP Blake Burkhalter made his Triple-A debut last week and was second at the Triple-A level in whiffs that day. Burkhalter was a college reliever who’s been exclusively deployed as a starter in the Braves system to pretty strong results. Despite the gaudy whiff numbers in that game, Burkhalter’s strikeout and walk numbers haven’t been particularly great this year - as the FIP-xFIP gap demonstrates, the FIP is largely driven by a favorable (lucky?) HR/FB rate. I’ll keep an eye on that in the second half.

SP Luke Sinnard dominated Low-A and got a brief taste of High-A before being shut down with an undisclosed injury - worrisome for someone who had internal brace surgery in his final college season. Sinnard appears to have nasty stuff and set the University of Indiana’s single-season strikeout record. Hopefully he gets back on the mound soon. The injury and the fact that he’s largely pitched in a level he should be too advanced for is keeping him from the first tier.

SP Lucas Braun has seen his strikeout numbers take a step back this year and is struggling with the long ball to a comical degree (20.5 percent HR/FB rate, roughly twice the league average), meaning that he’s underperforming his xFIP even more than Burkhalter is overperforming his xFIP. But he doesn’t walk many hitters and if he recovers some of his strikeout stuff from 2024 - maybe he’s getting there, as he’s struck out more than 30 percent of hitters in 3 of his last 4 starts - he’s setting up very nicely to be a contributor to the major league team in 2026.

By the numbers, SP Garrett Baumann was sneakily pushing for first-tier inclusion until a blowup start entering the All-Star break. In that last outing, he recorded no strikeouts and allowed two home runs, pushing up his FIP a third of a run. Like Braun, Baumann has struggled with the homers, but unlike Braun, who has allowed a home run in half his outings, all of Baumann’s long balls have come in four of his sixteen starts: back-to-back starts in mid-May and his two most recent starts. Baumann’s another guy whose velocity data I’d love; he’s huge (6’8”, 245) but wasn’t a hard thrower in high school. He displayed mid- to upper-90s velocity in a single-inning stint in his Spring Breakout outing.

Finally, SP Hurston Waldrep has turned things around somewhat from the last time I covered the farm system. At that point, he was coming off a miserable outing against Milwaukee’s Triple-A affiliate in which he lasted less than an inning and walked three batters. Since then, Waldrep has made a significant change to his delivery and it’s meaningfully improved his strikeout and walk rates, though neither is exciting. The remaining question with Waldrep is what to do about his fastball. He throws it hard (95.3 mph average velocity) but to little effect; it has a .383 xwOBA against and scores poorly in every public stuff model. I assume the answer isn’t so simple as “throw a sinker” or something, or else he would’ve already done it. If they can find a more effective fastball for him to throw that doesn’t reduce the utility of his excellent splitter and slider, his arrow will point up.

These guys vary from relief-only prospects to likely organizational depth that’s performed well enough to give me hopes of something more.

RP Hayden Harris, RP Jhancarlos Lara, and RP Landon Harper are relief-only prospects. Harris and Harper have dominated Double-A this year, with the former getting a promotion to Gwinnett, where he’s striking out lots of guys but walking plenty as well. Lara, too, has major command issues. But he’s absolutely unhittable when he’s anywhere near the zone, to the point where despite his 21.5 percent walk rate in Triple-A, he has a .263 xwOBA against. A hitter’s best hope to keep the bat on his shoulder and hope that Lara gets to four balls before three strikes, and that’s in fact what they’re trying to do; hitters swing at only 54 percent of strikes and 23 percent of balls he throws. Harper should get some run in Gwinnett by the end of the year and either Harris or Lara - maybe both, depending on what happens to the bullpen at the deadline - should get a cup of coffee in Atlanta.

SP Brett Sears and SP Owen Hackman are old-for-the-level performance guys. Sears has climbed all four levels of the affiliated minors this year and now sits in the Gwinnett rotation. (A fun fact about him: despite being drafted three years after Spencer Schwellenbach, he’s actually older than his fellow Cornhusker.) Sears has an unsexy profile - a sub-90 mph fastball and a skillset built around command - but making it to Triple-A in short order is pretty good work for a seventh-round senior sign from last year. Hackman is another 2024 senior sign who’s stuck in Single-A at 24 but has great strikeout and walk numbers and might have a fastball that plays above its low-90s velocity thanks to high induced vertical break.

SP Drue Hackenberg would have been towards the top of the second tier had I made this list preseason; he was excellent down the stretch in Mississippi last year (2.03 FIP/2.87 xFIP in 46 innings) and got a taste of Gwinnett. I figured he was a couple of rotation injuries away from the majors. Instead, he’s struggled with his command, gotten injured himself, and is rehabbing in the Florida Complex League. I hope Hackenberg gets his stuff back and his walks down, but for now this is where he belongs.

SP Ethan Bagwell has missed time with injury this year, but in small samples, he has dominated the FCL and understandably struggled a bit in Low-A. He was one of the overslept Day Two prep players the Braves grabbed last year ($823K bonus). This ranking is largely deference to FanGraphs’ bullish treatment of him as a top-25 prospect in the system entering this season.

Hitters

The ‘-ish’ qualifiers here signify my lack of enthusiasm about the hitters compared to the pitchers. None of these guys are Top 100 candidates, and nobody but Alvarez is at all close to contributing to the major league team. Nonetheless, there are some exciting performances here.

OF Diego Tornes is probably the team’s best position-player prospect. FanGraphs certainly thinks so, grading him as a 45+ FV. (For reference, 45+ FV prospects are a half step below 50 FV prospects, who generally make up the back end of the Top 100). Unlike recent high-profile Braves international signings who’ve struggled at the complex level (sorry, Jose Perdomo, Luis Guanipa, Diego Benitez . . .), Tornes has raked in his DSL and has made the league’s all-star game. We get no video from the DSL, but we get occasional bits of data, and we know for a fact that Tornes has premium power at the age of 17.

OF Isaiah Drake - younger brother of former running back Kenyan Drake - has had a redemptive 2025. In 2024, Drake struggled mightily in Low-A as an 18-year-old. In 2025, still a year and a half younger than the average player at the level, he’s put up an above-average batting line while handling center field and stealing 30 bags on 39 attempts. Crucially, he’s cut the strikeouts by a ton, from 35.4 percent last year to 23.1 percent this year, without meaningfully reducing his walk rate. The remaining question is whether more power will come - he can get into one but it doesn’t happen often. Nonetheless, this is a productive young player with speed and premium defensive ability who’s taken a big step forward.

OF/2B Eric Hartman was the Braves’ 2024 20th-round pick. Committed to Michigan to play baseball, it was plausible that the Braves had drafted Hartman not expecting to sign him. (Teams will sometimes draft seemingly unsignable prep players late in the draft in case negotiations fall through with an earlier pick and bonus pool money unexpectedly frees up.) Instead, the Braves inked the whole class, including Hartman, and when healthy, he’s been a big reason the GreenJackets have been fun to watch this year. The strikeouts are concerning but Hartman has bona fide power, and like Drake, he’s a menace on the base paths, stealing 25 bases on 27 attempts in Augusta. Most interestingly, he’s split time between second base, left field, and center field this year.

3B Nacho Alvarez Jr. has missed significant time with an oblique injury but dominated Gwinnett in a small sample before Austin Riley’s injury pushed him to Atlanta. Let’s start with the good: Alvarez seldom chases and seldom whiffs. If hitters were only evaluated based on whether they avoided striking out, Alvarez would be one of the best prospects in the sport. Unfortunately, Alvarez is extremely passive, doesn’t hit the ball hard, and probably can’t play the middle infield at the major league level, which puts a lot of pressure on his bat. Nonetheless, he kind of has to be in the first tier as someone who’s now a starter for the big league team and who has some skills that play at an elite level in the upper minors.

These players are held back from the first tier because their resumes are too light and/or because there’s a glaring flaw in their profiles but are better than merely interesting.

OF Michael Martinez wrecked shop over 69 PA in his second year in the DSL, where he’s slightly older than the average player. Of the 604 players to get at least 50 PA in the DSL, he’s 14th in wRC+ and 4th in ISO. He’s come stateside to the FCL and hit a home run today, which will juice his numbers. Whether he makes his affiliated debut this year or early next, he’ll likely be one of the linchpins of the High-A lineup when the current Augusta core graduates to Rome.

OF Owen Carey and SS John Gil are staples of the Augusta lineup. For the first few months of the season, Carey looked like a surefire first-tier inclusion along with Drake and Hartman, but he’s posted a 65 wRC+ over the last two months. It’s pretty impressive for an 18-year-old to hold his own in affiliated ball, especially with no complex experience; Carey is one of only 16 players his age or younger to accumulate 50 PA at the level this season.

Gil plays a good shortstop and is an aggressive baserunner (38 stolen bases on 49 attempts) but has tested the speed-never-slumps claim over his last month of games (56 wRC+). Before the draft, I would’ve said Gil was the top shortstop prospect in the organization. One credit to him: he walks as much as he strikes out. The next step for Gil is seeing if he can get more juice out of his balls in play.

3B David McCabe, OF Ethan Workinger, and OF/2B Geraldo Quintero all entered the season as borderline non-prospects - McCabe because he has serious defensive questions and had an injury-marred 2024 in which he was recovering from Tommy John, Workinger because he’s a former undrafted free agent who struggled after being promoted to Double-A last season, and Quintero because he’s historically been a slap hitter with no obvious countervailing virtues. All three have had a hot start, a rough June, and a resurgent July. Quintero has demonstrated the most impressive improvement - after hitting 6 home runs over the previous two seasons, he’s hit 9 through 63 games this year. Workinger is the youngest. McCabe is the most pedigreed. Given how barren the Gwinnett lineup is, all deserve promotions in short order.

Speaking of the Gwinnett lineup, SS/2B Luke Waddell is its only redeeming aspect. Is calling a 26-year-old a prospect pushing it? Maybe, but I’ve already opened that door with Hayden Harris and the bar is pretty low for bats in this organization. Waddell has the Nacho Alvarez profile - doesn’t swing much, doesn’t whiff much, doesn’t chase much, doesn’t hit the ball hard. He’s not a major league shortstop but he’s a lefty bat and could be a viable bench guy as soon as next year.

None of these guys have meaningful value right now, but all are worth monitoring for one reason or another.

OF Luis Guanipa was the crown jewel of the Braves’ January 2023 international signing class. Injuries have caused some false starts to his career so far, including this season. Since returning to Augusta, he’s hit to a perfectly acceptable 98 wRC+. As with a number of the other Augusta guys, a big question is whether he can get to some power.

SS Ambioris Tavarez was the crown jewel of the Braves’ January 2021 international signing class. Injuries have caused . . . you get it. Tavarez has also straight-up struggled for the entirety of his minor league career entering 2025. He’s taken a step forward in 2025, posting an above-average batting line. Unfortunately, he continues to strike out a ton and he doesn’t hit for much power. But he’s a good defender at a premium position who’s showing some progress. They’ll keep giving him chances.

OF Douglas Glod was hitless through his first 9 games this year but thanks to a decent bit of power and a strong walk rate, he carries an above-average batting line. Glod strikes out a ton and is relegated to a corner outfield spot but I’m intrigued by the power - particularly since, as you can tell from these write-ups, that’s a tool that’s in short supply in this system.

1B Mason Guerra is one of the organization’s top statistical performers this year. The caveats are that he’s old for Low-A, where he’s done the bulk of his work, and that he has little defensive value. Guerra was a big deal in high school and underperformed expectations by being merely good at Oregon State. He’s played a few games at third base but the Braves have primarily played him at first base. He’ll have to hit like he did in Augusta to stick around here.

Coming attractions

There are two categories of players who aren’t on these tiers for reasons not having to do with their performance.

First, the injured players. SP Owen Murphy will likely miss the whole season recovering from the Tommy John surgery he got midway through last year, though perhaps we’ll see him in September or in the Arizona Fall League. Murphy was tracking like a top-tier starting pitcher before he was injured, with great strikeout numbers driven by a fastball that played well above its velocity. If Murphy comes back with the same command and fastball shape but improved velocity, he could move really quickly. SP Carter Holton is recovering from a late 2024 Tommy John surgery so we certainly won’t see him till next year. Holton, a 2024 second-rounder, has significant reliever risk, but as we’ve seen with those guys before (Spencer Strider, anyone?), the Braves will let him start until and unless he forces the issue. He’s likely a second- or third-tier pitching prospect.

Second, the 2025 draftees. SS Tate Southisene and SS Alex Lodise will almost certainly be first-tier hitters when we get some data on them. OF Conor Essenburg will likely end up in the first or second tier of hitters depending on how aggressively the Braves push him and how he responds. And given his massive bonus (bigger than Southisene’s!) that values him like a late first-round pick, SP Briggs McKenzie may well be a second-tier pitcher to begin with.