The Braves got their just deserts
The team that couldn't catch a break got one at the last possible moment.
Desert is a funny thing. Not the biome (on which I offer no opinion), but the state of deserving something. Sometimes it’s easy. People who harm others deserve to face consequences. People who work hard deserve to succeed. These are statements so incontrovertible and bland that you could probably ask a politician about them and get a yes-or-no answer.
Sometimes it’s harder. What do the Braves deserve? On one hand, the team has dealt with multi-month absences from its top two preseason starting pitchers, second baseman, third baseman, center fielder, and right fielder. On the other hand, they lost their season series to the Nationals. On one hand, they’ve dealt with horrific luck offensively. On the other hand, some of those offensive players have endured real regression this year. On one hand, it’s been admirable the way pitchers like Reynaldo López, Spencer Schwellenbach, and even Grant Holmes have stepped up down the stretch. On the other, it’s been disheartening how primitively those pitchers have been managed at times.
It’s been hard to enjoy this team for more than a few days at a time since maybe early May. The Braves spent the bulk of the season basically treading water. But they’re going to the playoffs. They’re entering that giant roulette game in which anyone can slay a giant or two. Just ask the 2023 Diamondbacks or the 2022 Phillies - or the 2021 Braves.
The way they got there is as clumsy as it gets. After a few days of baseball perfection - wins by the Braves each night, losses by the Diamondbacks and Mets - the Braves couldn’t close out an apathetic Royals team on Sunday, then blew eighth and ninth inning leads in Game 161. Chris Sale, the Braves’ literal ace in the hole, was suddenly announced unavailable with back spasms, and the Braves’ season hinged on outscoring the Mets in a bullpen game. Fortunately for Atlanta, Grant Holmes pitched the game of his life, Reynaldo López earned an early signature moment for his Braves tenure with some clutch relief, and the Mets played with about the vigor you’d expect from a team that just clinched a playoff berth of its own and probably preferred the Milwaukee/Philadelphia route to the San Diego/Los Angeles option. The result is an online reaction from Braves fans that sounds more like embarrassed relief than jubilation. (It doesn’t help that Sale will apparently miss at least the Wild Card series.)
You can certainly make the case that it shouldn’t have been this close based on factors the Braves could control - why did they shut down midway through four-game September series against the Phillies and Dodgers, or why couldn’t their best relievers hold leads late in Game 161, or why did some of the best hitters in baseball get worse at hitting overnight? - but the misfortune that has beset this team this year is incredible.
Let’s think of it this way. Put aside the injuries, if you can, and just consider the players who played. The 2024 Atlanta Braves are seventh in offensive xwOBA and second in pitching xwOBA. In a fourteen-team playoff, certainly a team like that belongs. (For reference, Philadelphia ranks eighth offensively and seventh in pitching.) What has plagued the Braves, maybe more than even injuries, is just plain old metric underperformance. When Braves hitters are at the plate, it feels like the only sure things are that one of them will get hit by a pitch and hit the 10-day IL and they’ll hit a few “it is high, it is far” balls that somehow - and yes, after six months, the disappointment remains fresh - die harmlessly at the track. And that’s not just the eye test; the Braves have dealt with the fourth-worst offensive underperformance of any team. Combine that with the fact that the league as a whole had its worst xwOBA underperformance of the Statcast era, and it’s no surprise that the Braves offense has been joyless to watch.
There are real cracks in this team. With Chris Sale out for at least the Wild Card series, Atlanta might be leaning on Johnny Wholestaff in the first game of a best-of-three playoff series the day after a doubleheader. A year after making for a feel-good story on a team that lived in a six-month Era of Good Feelings, Orlando Arcia may be one of the worst starting position players in baseball. It would be great if Sean Murphy started playing like his old self, but if it hasn’t happened by now, it probably won’t happen this week. Help is not on the way. These Braves are who they are.
And that team - flawed, bruised, limping backwards into tomorrow’s game - fully deserves to play October baseball. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise.