The answers we've gotten this spring

With spring training wrapping up, the image of the 2025 Braves comes into focus.

About a month ago, I posed some questions to consider as the Braves began spring training. There weren’t a ton of spots up for grabs, but given that the team let Max Fried, Charlie Morton, and AJ Minter walk without acquiring players on major-league deals to replace them, there were innings to be had in the rotation and the bullpen. And with Ronald Acuña Jr. out to start the season, someone needed to step up for at least a month or so.

Spring training is nearly over, so let’s talk about how those questions have been answered.

Who plays right field while Ronald Acuña Jr. rehabs?

My instinct then: Jarred Kelenic and Bryan de la Cruz would platoon. Kelenic is a perfectly fine short-term, strong-side platoon hitter, and despite de la Cruz’s struggles (too generous?) last year, he retains some upside at the plate.

What I think now: Until about 24 hours ago, I felt validated. Kelenic and de la Cruz have gotten plenty of run this spring - 39 plate appearances each - and while neither has really impressed (85 wRC+ for Kelenic, 99 wRC+ for de la Cruz), they’ve both posted what would be career-best walk and strikeout rates. Small sample, but nothing to complain about, and good enough from both to merit some plate appearances till Acuña gets back.

Things got a little complicated yesterday when the Braves signed Alex Verdugo to a one-year major league deal. The deal apparently allows the Braves to send Verdugo to Gwinnett once - which they promptly did - but it’s difficult to believe the Braves have committed $1.5 million to Verdugo with no intention for him to play a role on the major league team.

Verdugo and Kelenic don’t make sense on a major league roster together if neither is getting everyday starts - and maybe not even then. Teams don’t need multiple fringe starter left-handed corner outfielders. Kelenic has a minor league option remaining, though, so it’s not improbable that if he doesn’t light the world on fire while Acuña is out, he takes the Gwinnett shuttle upon Acuña’s return and Verdugo takes his place as fourth outfielder.

Though the fit is a little weird, it’s somewhat like the Adam Duvall deal last year in that Verdugo’s value was too good to pass up. He’s a plus defender in a corner and until last year, he was an above-average hitter by xwOBA in every full season of his career. And whichever of Verdugo or Kelenic is in Gwinnett will provide the Braves better corner outfield depth than they’ve had since . . . Matt Joyce in 2019?

Which relief pitching lottery ticket pans out?

My instinct then: At least one of Anderson Pilar, Jake Diekman, Enyel de los Santos, Enoli Paredes, Angel Perdomo, Buck Farmer, and Dylan Covey would be a good reliever this year.

What I think now: The bad news is that of the players I listed, only de los Santos and Covey remain in camp, and Covey has been bad. The good news is that Enyel de Los Santos - probably the best bet of that group - has looked really nice, with elite strikeout and walk rates in a small sample. And the other good news is the Braves have thrown two more players on the pile, signing Hey, That Guy Was Really Good A Few Years Ago So Maybe He Can Be Good Again candidates Hector Neris and Craig Kimbrel. In 2023, Kimbrel and Neris combined for 2.0 fWAR. That offseason, they signed one-year deals for a combined $22 million. Neither could command a major league deal this offseason. It’s certainly not because the league forgot they were good - they both posted the second-worst K-BB rate of their careers and pitched like roughly replacement-level relievers in 2024 - but there’s plenty of pedigree there, and I wouldn’t be surprised if either turned back the clock for one more nice season. (The scariest possible outcome here is that they’re not good and get overused in leverage anyway because they have big names, but let’s think positive.)

Who wins the fifth (and sixth?) starter jobs?

My instinct then: Alex Anthopoulos was pretty consistent in his praise of Grant Holmes this offseason, and Ian Anderson got some more muted support. It seemed pretty clear that Holmes and Anderson would both get rotation spots to start the year - Holmes was a revelation in 2024, Anderson has history on his side, and both are out of options - and the Braves would re-evaluate things once Strider came back. I wasn’t thrilled by the prospect of Anderson getting regular starts, and I was disappointed that the Braves didn’t bring in a low-variance veteran starter to provide some security.

What I think now: Holmes hasn’t statistically excelled this spring, but he’s shown the same repertoire that enabled his success last year, plus the kick-changeup that’s fashionable across baseball this spring and already grades out positively for him. I’m comfortable with Holmes in the rotation and while it would be nice to have enough good starters that he gets kicked to a swingman role when Strider returns, he seems a perfectly good option for the eventual fifth starter job.

Ian Anderson, on the other hand, has been a hot mess. Spring training stats really don’t matter given varying effort levels and attempts to tinker with arsenals, but it’s hard to imagine there being some strategy that leads to a 10.7 percent strikeout rate and a 24 percent walk rate. Frankly, I’d have some concerns even if those numbers were reversed, but the number as is are ghastly. On the bright side, he’s limited quality contact in elite fashion (76.1 percent ground ball rate?!?) but if he doesn’t continue to do that in a way he’s never shown he can do before, things will get extremely ugly extremely quickly.

On the bright side, AJ Smith-Shawver has shown out really nicely so far this spring, not only striking out hitters at an elite clip but also walking hitters at a lower rate than he’s ever achieved at any stop of his professional career. He might make the Opening Day rotation.

I’m not sure there’s anything there with Anderson, and I think the Braves could still use a veteran starting pitcher. Spencer Turnbull is a Boras client, yes, but he’s unsigned late in the offseason and he’s generally been good when healthy. Kyle Gibson is still out there, though he comes with less intrigue than Turnbull. As the Braves have shown in the last week, it’s certainly not too late in the offseason to add around the edges.

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