Meet the new normal (days of rest)
In 2024, the Braves have gone the extra mile - or day - to maximize their starting pitchers' downtime between starts.
For a team that entered 2024 with an elite starting rotation by its FanGraphs projections, the Braves have made some choices that we’d usually see from a team dealing with a real starting pitching scarcity. Ray Kerr started the season as a reliever in Triple-A and has gotten two starts in the majors. Spencer Schwellenbach got called up after a brief spell in Double-A (and, frankly, not a very long stay in High-A) and Hurston Waldrep came up after an even quicker jaunt through the minors.
Some of this is explicable by losing Spencer Strider for the season after two starts and losing AJ Smith-Shawver for a few months after one start. And some of it is explicable by the Braves demonstrating in recent years that they’re not afraid to start their prospects’ major league clocks. But the interesting thing is, the Braves have actually gotten expected or better performance from four starters so far. Chris Sale has been as good as ever, Max Fried, Reynaldo Lopez has been a revelation, and Charlie Morton has been a perfectly good fourth starter. On paper, that leaves one spot to fill. So why are the Braves cycling through so many pitchers?
Because they’ve been trying to fill two spots.
The Braves have been pretty good about finding opportunities for their starters to get extra rest in recent years, but they’ve taken that to the next level this year. The Braves are running a five-and-a-half man rotation, essentially, with the sixth man dropping out of the rotation when the team has an off day. Let’s take a look at the numbers and see the difference.
As you can see, the Braves were consistently interested in getting starters extra rest in 2023, but all of their pitchers were starting on what we call ‘normal’ rest at least 25 percent of the time. Roughly, it worked out such that the team wouldn’t skip backend starters in the rotation, but it also wouldn’t move heaven and earth to avoid having one of its starters pitch on four days’ rest.
In 2024, it’s a completely different story. All four of the Braves’ mainstay options are starting at least 86 percent of their games on ‘extra’ rest. I think this is partially explicable by the fact that Reynaldo López is starting for the first time in years and that Chris Sale should be treated with kid gloves. But even looking at the three common cogs in the rotation, only Elder hasn’t seen a massive spike in his rest. And that’s because he’s had a five-start sample in 2024 and is, with due respect to Elder, probably viewed by the team as less important to conserve down the stretch.
If you’re looking for a strong conclusion here, I’m afraid you’ll be disappointed. What the Braves are doing here isn’t radical and it doesn’t necessarily indicate a wholesale change in how the organization views the regular season. That being said, I think this is pretty interesting. If the last few seasons have shown Braves fans anything, it’s that once the playoffs start, getting hot at the right time is the name of the game. Perhaps Atlanta is willing to sacrifice some regular season success - or at least put itself in worse shape to win some games - in hopes of keeping its horses healthy for October.
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