Can you spare a bit of leverage for Aaron Bummer?
One of the best relievers in the Braves' bullpen shouldn't be treated like an afterthought.
On Tuesday, the Twins ran out an extremely lefty-heavy lineup. It went switch-lefty-lefty-lefty-righty-lefty-switch-righty-righty. Sure, the ratio doesn’t seem crazy if you just look at the numbers - four lefties, three righties, two switch hitters - but only one of the top six hitters in the lineup was right-handed. This was the day to trot out the lefty relievers if there ever was one. Sure, A.J. Minter is done for the year, but the Braves are fortunate to have two of the best left-handed relievers in the sport anyway: Dylan Lee and Aaron Bummer.
So imagine my surprise when, in a rapidly tightening game, Brian Snitker relied on his worst reliever (yes, Jesse Chavez has been worth negative FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement this year and has been bad by any metric for about two months) for multiple innings, then tried to close the deal with his high-leverage righties. Dylan Lee got one hitter.
And Aaron Bummer? Well, he probably got extremely familiar with the Target Field visitor’s bullpen.
I really liked the Aaron Bummer trade when the Braves made it. One reason is that it’s the rare occasion that baseball fans’ favorite kind of trade proposal - “I’ll give you five players I don’t particularly like in return for one player I actually want” - actually comes to fruition. I got the trade from the Chicago perspective - teams flirting with 100 losses don’t need to get precious about relievers - but Bummer is a fantastic reliever. There are three things you want pitchers to do: strike out hitters, don’t walk hitters, and induce weak ground ball contact instead of hard-hit fly balls. Last year, Bummer did the first and the third. This year, he’s added the second to his repertoire.
So how is it that we’re in August and Aaron Bummer’s average leverage index puts him closer to Grant Holmes and Jesse Chavez than Joe Jiménez and Pierce Johnson?
The Braves are using Aaron Bummer as a punter
Aaron Bummer has made 45 appearances this year. In most of those games, things were going poorly for the Braves when he entered. 28 of Bummer’s 45 appearances have come in deficit situations. Another eight appearances have come with a lead of greater than four runs. So a grand total of nine times this year, the Braves have let Aaron Bummer pitch in a competitive game they’re not losing.
We know the Braves view deficit situations differently than leads. This is the team that let Patrick Weigel make his major league debut with a small ninth inning deficit. And just compare Bummer’s treatment to that of Pierce Johnson. These pitchers have similar stories - shaky work in 2023, turnaround in Atlanta after trades of similar magnitude, being valued at about the same amount by the front office. Pierce Johnson has made 47 appearances, and 39 have been in tie or lead situations! Or take Joe Jiménez, who has made 56 appearances, 49 of which have been in tie or lead situations.
Let’s be clear - it’s not a bad idea to use good relievers with a deficit. That’s how you keep close games from turning into noncompetitive ones. And given Bummer’s elite ground-ball rate (98th percentile leaguewide), he’s precisely the guy you want to lean on to get you out of messes.
But messes happen with a lead, too! One happened on Tuesday night, when Chavez started off the seventh inning by allowing three straight hits. “Why put Chavez out there in the first place?” is a fine question, but “Why not spell him with a pitcher whose arsenal is hand-crafted to clean up the bases?” is an even better one.
It seems like someone with power has decided that Aaron Bummer doesn’t get to sit at the Good Relievers table. It means that even as the oldest reliever in baseball is told to try to wiggle out of a jam of his own creation, Bummer is told to save his bullets for if things really go south.
And that’s stupid, because …
Aaron Bummer is phenomenal
Of the 260 relievers who have faced at least 100 hitters this year, Bummer is 20th in xwOBA against. That puts him fourth in the Braves’ bullpen, behind Raisel Iglesias, Dylan Lee, and Joe Jiménez (it’s a really good bullpen). It puts him ahead of big-name closers like Jhoan Duran and Andrés Muñoz.
This is a pitcher who can do it all. He induces grounders at an absurd rate. He’s literally the single best pitcher in baseball at avoiding barrels this year. He strikes out hitters at a prodigious clip. He should be the guy in jams!
And he’s there in the bullpen, at the Braves’ service.
Use him when it matters.
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