Braves prospect roundup, May edition
I'm spending way too much time on MiLB.com so you don't have to.
We’re at the point of the season where everyday starters in the minors are beginning to hit 100 plate appearances and starting pitchers are getting to the 5-start mark, meaning that I’m ready to form some early opinions about Braves prospects. Before we get into this, I want to note that I'm not a prospect expert; you’ll get the best prospect analysis from the teams at FanGraphs and Battery Power/Peach State Prospects. But I’ve watched a fair bit of the action so far and I’ve scoured the stat sheets. Here’s what’s caught my eye so far.
Note: I’m not including anything on the FCL since their play started just a few days ago and isn’t televised or really otherwise covered by the media.
Gwinnett Stripers (Triple-A)
Team overview
The Stripers have largely been a Quad-A veteran receptacle for years, and 2025 is no different so far, especially with Bryce Elder, Drake Baldwin and AJ Smith-Shawver in the big leagues. The only prospects here are Hurston Waldrep, Nacho Alvarez, and maybe Royber Salinas, and the latter two are on the 60-day IL. Otherwise, a Stripers game is where you go when you’re trying to find a middle reliever who was pretty good four years ago. Enoli Paredes, José Suarez, Wander Suero, Jackson Stephens, Jesse Chavez, Craig Kimbrel (okay, yes, not like the others) - you’ve got options, even if they don’t.
Hitters
There’s really nothing to report here. SS/2B Luke Waddell is the closest the Stripers have to a healthy hitting prospect. His surface stat line (.329/.407/.397, 127 wRC+) is pretty good, though the underlying .320 xwOBA is unremarkable. He primarily plays shortstop and can handle second base, but no scouting service seems to think he’s any good at either. Waddell is probably the first guy up if something happens to Nick Allen, Orlando Arcia, or Ozzie Albies, and as a fellow Georgia Tech alum, I’ll be thrilled for him. But he dropped off FanGraphs’ Braves prospect list entirely this spring (after being ranked as a 35+ FV on their 2024 list), so temper your expectations.
Pitchers
It’s gone so, so badly for SP Hurston Waldrep. Waldrep has a 4.73 FIP/5.34 xFIP through 6 starts and has only lasted 23 innings. Walking 15.5 percent of hitters while only striking out 18.1 percent of hitters is a bad combination. Waldrep’s splitter remains lethal, drawing a 47.7 percent whiff rate, but teams have teed off on his fastball to the tune of a .412 xwOBA against and he doesn’t appear to be able to command anything. I’m curious to see whether the organization continues to let him figure things out in the rotation or if they push him to the bullpen; generally, the Braves have erred on the side of letting pitchers get developmental innings through lots of starts, but things are going poorly enough here that I wonder if the team shifts its focus to trying to get some utility out of Waldrep as a reliever. After all, the Clay Holmes/Reynaldo López/Seth Lugo track reminds us that such a conversion wouldn’t be irreversible.
On the other hand, RP Dylan Dodd has been absolutely nasty in relief after getting beat around in his first appearance of the year. Dodd entered Sunday striking out 34 percent of batters and walking only 5.7 percent, and he added another strikeout in a scoreless inning of relief. Dodd is doing it with a four-pitch mix, and while his fastball hasn’t performed particularly well (.371 xwOBA against), it has a roughly average whiff rate against, is sitting at 94.3 mph, and has topped out at 96.9 mph. That’s impressive for a strike-throwing lefty with good command and it’s a meaningful improvement over his velocity as a starting pitcher. Based on Thomas Nestico’s tjStuff+ model, Dodd’s fastball, cutter, and slider have all taken big steps forward this year, though it’s more ‘bad to average’ than ‘average to standout’. I didn’t think I’d say this a month ago, but Dodd would be the guy I’d bring up next from the glut of relief options in Gwinnett, especially since he’s already on the 40-man.
Honorable mention goes to SP Nathan Wiles, who’s already gotten a cup of coffee with the major league club this year. Wiles was a minor league Rule 5 pick from Tampa Bay and has pitched to a 2.16 ERA/3.24 FIP/3.20 xFIP this year. Wiles is probably the next guy up as spot starters go.
Columbus Clingstones (Double-A)
Team overview
The Clingstones, formerly the Mississippi Braves, have little firepower to speak of in the starting lineup but a loaded pitching staff. Until the current crop of talent in Low-A (more on them later) flows upwards, that will probably be the case.
Hitters
There are two guys worth talking about here. OF Ethan Workinger was an undrafted free agent JUCO outfielder in 2021 and has hit nicely at various stops, all while garnering virtually no prospect attention. He’s currently putting in his most impressive performance yet, with a 161 wRC+ (for counting-stats people out there, he’s roughly on a 50-homer pace) through 19 games. Okay, yeah, a lot of this was him hitting three home runs in one game, but it’s not like that game doesn’t count! The 27.8 percent K rate is concerning, but he’s hitting the ball hard and he’s actually a little young for the level. I’d keep an eye on Workinger.
I’ve also been impressed by 3B David McCabe. At the end of 2023, I saw McCabe and Drake Baldwin as not too distant in value; they were drafted in similar places in the 2022 draft and while Baldwin had more defensive value, McCabe seemed like he might be the slightly better hitter. McCabe then missed most of 2024 with Tommy John surgery and came back a shell of himself. This year is critical for McCabe, not the least because he’s a 25 year old in Double-A, and it’s off to a great start. McCabe has put up a 159 wRC+, and while he’s yet to demonstrate much power, his walk rates - which have always been excellent - have been Marcell Ozuna-esque to start 2025. McCabe is currently walking at a 22.2 percent clip. Now pretty please hit for some power.
Pitchers
There’s so much good pitching in Columbus. SP Lucas Braun is fringe Top 100 material and has bolstered his case with a 3.83 FIP/2.93 xFIP through 29 innings here. Braun had 13 Double-A starts last year too and was similarly excellent, so it seems like it’s just a matter of time till he gets called up to Gwinnett. SP Blake Burkhalter has a Schwellenbachian story - he’s a college reliever who had early-career Tommy John and who the Braves are continuing to treat as a starting pitching prospect. His 2.66 FIP/3.89 xFIP line in his first try at the level is a validation of the organization’s belief in him. On the other hand, SP Drue Hackenberg (Christian’s brother) and SP Jhancarlos Lara have had severe strike-throwing issues. That’s always been Lara’s bugaboo but it’s particular shame to see it hit Hackenberg, especially given that he got somewhat of a handle on the free passes at this level last year.
The really big story here is SP Didier Fuentes, who has done more than any Braves prospect to raise his profile in the first month of the season. He’s in Double-A at age 19 and he’s gotten bumped up from a 40+ FV to a 50 FV (and top 100) prospect by FanGraphs, with the following write-up:
Fuentes was originally written up on this cycle’s Braves list as a 40+ FV prospect with a traits-heavy fastball who could break out if improvements to his conditioning facilitated a boost in arm strength. Well, that has happened. He carved in three High-A starts and was given a quick hook up to Double-A.
There were times last year when Fuentes was paving over A-ball lineups even though he was using his fastball at a 70-80% clip. On the season, he used it 70% of the time and still struck out 32.1% of opponents. For further context, the average big league fastball generated a 23% miss rate in 2024, while Fuentes’ was well above 30% even though he was sitting only 93.
This season, his fastball has routinely been in the 94-96 range and touched 97-98 several times in his first Double-A start. Fuentes’ fastball was already dominating because of its shape and angle, and now it also has plus velocity. This guy explodes down the mound and generates nearly seven feet of extension, even though the 19-year-old righty is only listed at six feet tall. His drive off the rubber is so explosive that, in his most recent start, the umpires stopped the game multiple times to talk to him about how far he was coming off the mound.
Fuentes is still a two-pitch guy and his slider isn’t consistently good yet, but his fastball is going to carry him to a meaningful big league role as a starter, much like Bryce Miller or Joe Ryan. Given the Braves’ penchant for pushing their good prospects, there’s a chance Fuentes keeps climbing and gets moved to Triple-A if he pitches well at Columbus in May. He’s officially a Top 100 prospect and a potential mid-rotation weapon.
Fuentes is a special talent and, with Smith-Shawver in the big leagues, maybe the Braves minor leagues starting pitching prospect to watch right now. He’s struggled in his first few starts in Columbus, but again, this is a 19-year-old in Double-A.
Even in the relievers in Columbus are fun to watch. RP Hayden Harris has no business at this level and has to be promoted to Gwinnett; he’s striking out 47.1 percent of hitters, walking 5.9 percent of hitters and has allowed 1 hit through 10 innings. He struggled with his command in Gwinnett last year, but it’s time to send him back there and let him figure it out. There’s plenty more talent in the bullpen to fill the void he’ll leave, including RP Landon Harper, who’s been an effective multi-inning guy, and RP Luis Vargas, who got promoted to Double-A when it became clear he had outgrown High-A in Hayden Harris fashion. RP Elison Joseph and RP Rolddy Muñoz have struggled to throw strikes this year (notice a pattern?) but both have high-end stuff and it wouldn’t be a shock to see either pop.
Rome Emperors (High-A)
Team overview
The Emperors are defined offensively by a bunch of fringe prospects and organizational guys having nice, OBP-driven starts to the season. As with Columbus, the rotation is where the intrigue is.
Hitters
SS Ambioris Tavarez was the first big Braves splash in the international market as the John Coppolella-era sanctions eased. Things have gone pretty poorly for him and he’s fallen off FanGraphs’ prospect list altogether. But he’s off to at least an intriguing start in 2025, posting the best walk rate (13.7 percent) and the best strikeout rate of his career (35.3 percent, and yes, that is a career best), good for a 116 wRC+. He’s shown virtually no power, slugging .326, and the .429 BABIP certainly won’t hold, but it’s a sign of life.
Beyond Tavarez, it’s mostly organizational depth types. 2B/SS E.J. Exposito is setting the world on fire (217 wRC+, .641 SLG) but going on 24, he’s a little old for the level. (Exposito was perfectly good at High-A in 115 games last season, so perhaps it’s time for him to move up to Columbus.) 2024 draftees OF Patrick Clohisy and OF Titus Dimitru are performing nicely but aren’t highly regarded prospects.
Pitchers
SP JR Ritchie is the crown jewel of the Emperors right now, and although the gap between his 1.65 ERA and 4.29 FIP rightly raises some red flags, his numbers are largely brought down by a pedestrian first start. Since then, he’s put up a 3.61 FIP over 5 outings, striking out 24.5 percent of hitters and walking merely 5.5 percent of them. FanGraphs was pessimistic about Ritchie’s fastball in its March report, noting that he mostly sat in the 91-94 range in his return from Tommy John surgery last year. It’s not clear that his velocity has improved over full starts (though it was up during the Spring Breakout and he’s in the 94-96 range early in his outings), but the results have been strong.
The next guys of interest here are the gigantic SP Garrett Baumann and SP Herick Hernandez. Baumann showed up throwing much harder this spring, and while it hasn’t translated to eye-popping results - he struck out 21.9 percent of hitters in Low-A last year and 21.5 percent of hitters in High-A this year - it generates some intrigue about his upside case. Baumann induces a lot of ground balls and while he’s struggled a bit with throwing strikes this year (8.6 percent walk rate), he was unusually good for a teenage pitching prospect in that respect last year and FanGraphs puts a 60 FV on his command. Hernandez came from a Miami program that’s reportedly not great at developing pitchers and he’s been better as a pro than as a college pitcher so far. Like Baumann, he generates a lot of ground balls, but he also collects a ton of whiffs (32.1 percent strikeout rate). He’s got to get the walks and the long ball under control, but a 3.83 xFIP suggests he’s doing perfectly fine as is.
Finally, someone please get 25-year-old RP Ryan Bourassa to Columbus. He’s struck out 51.3 percent of hitters he’s faced and has a 0.95 FIP/1.54 xFIP.
Augusta GreenJackets (Low-A)
Team overview
The lower you get in the minor leagues, the less the games you watch look like professional baseball. Triple-A games virtually all feature players who have had significant big league time; Low-A games are largely populated by young players fresh out of high schools and the complex leagues. Watch a few games and you might not see a Little League home run, but you’ll certainly see weak pop-ups turn into extra-base hits and botched double plays. Nevertheless, in Atlanta’s system, Augusta is the most consistently fun team to watch - and the only one where the hitters aren’t overshadowed by the arm talent.
Hitters
The story in Augusta - honestly, maybe the preeminent story of the system so far - is the daily one through five of the GreenJackets’ starting lineup: SS John Gil, OF Owen Carey, OF Eric Hartman, C Nick Montgomery, and OF Isaiah Drake. Gil is an international signee, Carey, Hartman, and Montgomery were 2024 high school draftees, and Drake (brother of NFL veteran Kenyan Drake) was a 2023 high school draftee. All but Gil and Montgomery have a wRC+ over 100, and even Gil has really turned it around of late; he has a 142 wRC+ since April 15 and hit his first home run of the season on Sunday. (Montgomery is really struggling with strikeouts, with a 48 wRC+ and 33.3 percent strikeout rate, but when he gets into one, it goes a long way.) Everyone but Montgomery is fast, and seeing these five hit consecutively is a lot of fun. Two other guys to watch here are OF Luis Guanipa, who’s currently on the IL with some sort of injury, and OF Douglas Glod, who has a 125 wRC+, though it’s buoyed by a probably unsustainable 26.8 percent walk rate. And we might even see Jose Perdomo, who’s currently in the FCL, make his affiliated debut at some point this year.
If you’re ever bored - especially at work during the 11 a.m. Education Day start times - and you have MLB.TV, I highly recommend tuning in to see these guys at some point.
Pitchers
The pitchers at this level aren’t quite as much of a must-watch as the hitters, but they’re not chopped liver, either. SP Luke Sinnard was a 2024 draftee coming off internal brace surgery who broke Indiana’s single-season strikeout record and he’s wrecking shop so far, with a 33.3 percent K rate to a 9.5 percent walk rate. SP/RP Brett Sears is old for the level at 25, but he’s striking out nearly 40 percent of hitters and running a 1.93 ERA/2.11 FIP/1.98 xFIP. Move him up and let him continue his swingman work in Rome. SP Owen Hackman is a small school fastball-characteristics developmental project who’s getting a lot of whiffs in his first full professional season, although the poor guy doesn’t deserve to carry a .419 BABIP around. Like Hackman, SP/RP Logan Samuels is off to a nice start (though a low BABIP means he’s overperforming his Hackman-like peripherals) and like Sears, it looks like the Braves are happy to use him as a swingman.
Concluding thoughts
This might be the best the Braves’ farm system has been in years. The last few FanGraphs system rankings have had the Braves as a roughly average farm system, which is the best they’ve been since the start of 2021. Just as importantly, the farm seems to have balanced a bit at its lowest level; while the Braves will likely want more arms than bats at the major league level for the foreseeable future given how much of the lineup is under long-term control, a wellspring of interesting position players will give the Braves more ammunition in trade talks and better depth.
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